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In statistics education, informal inferential reasoning (also called informal inference) refers to the process of making a generalization based on data (samples) about a wider universe (population/process) while taking into account uncertainty without using the formal statistical procedure or methods (e.g. P-values, t-test, hypothesis testing, significance test). Like formal statistical inference, the purpose of informal inferential reasoning is to draw conclusions about a wider universe (population/process) from data (sample). However, it is to be contrasted with formal statistical inference that formal statistical procedure or methods are not necessarily used. In statistics education literature, the term "informal" is used to distinguish informal inferential reasoning from a formal method of statistical inference. ==Informal Inferential Reasoning and Statistical Inference== Since everyday life involves making decisions based on data, making inferences is an important skill to have. However, a number of studies on assessments of students’ understanding statistical inference suggest that students have difficulties in reasoning about inference.〔Garfield, J.B., & Ben-Zvi, D. (2008). Learning to reason about statistical inference. In Developing students’ statistical reasoning: connecting research and teaching (pp.261-288). New York, NY: Springer.〕 Given the importance of reasoning about statistical inference and difficulties that students have with this type of reasoning, statistics educators and researchers have been exploring alternative approaches towards teaching statistical inference.〔Zieffler, A. , Garfield, J., delMas, R., & Reading, C. (2008). A framework to support research on informal inferential reasoning. Statistical Education Research Journal, 7(2), 40-58. (online from http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/serj/SERJ7(2)_Zieffler.pdf )〕 Recent research suggests that students have some sound intuitions about data and these intuitions can be refined and nudged towards prescriptive theory of inferential reasoning.〔 More of an informal and conceptual approach that build on the previous big ideas and make connection between foundational concepts is therefore favorable.〔 Recently, informal inferential reasoning has been the focus of research and discussion among researchers and educators in statistics education as it is seen as having a potential to help build fundamental concepts that underlie formal statistical inference. Many advocate that underlying concepts and skills of inference should be introduced early in the course or curriculum as they can help make the formal statistical inference more accessible (see published reaction of Garfield & Zieffler to〔Wild, C. J., Pfannkuch, M., Regan, M., & Horton, N. J. (2011). Towards more accessible conceptions of statistical inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 174(2), 247 – 295. (online from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00678.x/full )〕). 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Informal inferential reasoning」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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